Wednesday, August 29, 2007

A Primer For Celtic Fans

Due to sweeping changes to the Celtic landscape, there are a few things (10 in fact) that Boston fans need to become acquainted with. (Shhh. They've been kept secret for a very very long time.):


1) After the season ends in April. There is actually a second season. It's a sort of tournament. They call it "The Playoffs." Sound it out with me, "Play-Offs. Playoffs." Got it? Were you able to say the word clearly? Good!

2) Yes it's true, the basketball season does NOT really end in April. They continue to have more games in these so called Play-Offs, where various teams compete for something called the NBA title. (Sound it out.)

3) Older fans may vaguely recall the word "Championship" (Champ-Ion-Ship). Younger ones may have noticed the 16 numbered blankets hanging overhead at the Boston Garden. These blankets or Ban-Ners are really fruits of winning the Champ-Ion-Ship in the Play-Offs.

4) I should also stop to explain the word Winning (Win-Ning). It's been so long... Winning means when your team has a higher score than the other team. If this happens on a regular basis, you are known as a Win-Ner.


Now I know this is a lot to take in all at once, but please stay with me, because here comes the hard part:

5) This is a really difficult concept to grasp for those unfamiliar with Winning, Banners, and Playoffs-- The lottery is actually NOT the most important day in the NBA season. (Gasp!) It's true. As it turns out, these Playoffs are MORE IMPORTANT!

6) When you are a Win-Ner, you receive a draft pick that isn't very good, and you don't get to be in the lottery at all. It's sort of a penalty. How about that!?!?

7) Because your draft pick isn't very good the NBA draft becomes much less important. Your mainstays of the past few decades: Youth, Upside, and Potential, no longer come into play very much. Really. When you are a Winner, you don't care about potential so much as this strange second season after April.
Confusing isn't it? Well don't worry, you'll get it soon enough.

8) Beyond that, the All Star game will have Celtics playing on the main evening, not just performing in the slam dunk contest.

9) During the regular season opposing teams will not laugh when they see you on the schedule. Instead they will display an expression you are not familiar with. This expression will resemble pain. It is known as fear. This means you win so frequently, the opposing team realizes they probably cannot beat you.
(Yes, think about that. You actually have a higher score than the other team so often that they expect you to win regularly. Amazing.)

10) Sometimes, someone besides Mike and Tommy may call the games. They make these particular games available to the entire country at once. They are known as "National Broadcasts," and are usually of very poor quality. It's OK; it's actually sort of a compliment.


Let's review:
Play-Offs.
Win-Ner.
Champ-Ion-Ship.
The lottery and draft are not important.
National Broadcasts.

Strange huh?

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Roster turned over by 3/5ths in two months

For those playing along at home, here's a roster update after the Posey signing:

6 returning players (only SIX!):

Pierce
Perkins
Scalabrine
Tony Allen
Rondo
Powe

9 brand new players (NINE!):

Garnett
Ray Allen
Posey
Pollard
House
Brandon Wallace
Jackie Manuel
Pruitt
Mr. Glen Big Baby Davis

That's not just "blowing it up," that's a mushroom cloud.


...and I think there's one more move to come.

This is the most fun you can have in an offseason, isn't it?

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

What an Amazing Four Months This Has Been

>>>> Spring to Summer:

1) March and April: With a superb draft in sight, the Celtics along with numerous other teams did everything they could to maximize their chances of ping pong nirvana.
They sidelined everyone who either were injured, felt bad, or could play really well-- Mission sort of accomplished as the team "won" the injured-games-lost title.
They used the youngest, least experienced lineups in every fourth quarter.
And they lost. Oh how they lost. Only the Grizzlies were more skilled at the fine art of ping pong acquisition.

2) May 18th, the Lottery: All hope and most life essence was swiftly expelled from every greenblood when the team ended up with a worst possible 5th pick. Suddenly the Celtics were not getting Oden or Durant, but instead Yi or Jeff Green. Panic turned to an extended period of depression.
Slowly the pain faded a bit, as the other young prospects began to seem mildly tantalizing.

3) Late June: Draft night came and the Ray Allen deal was leaked, then verified. There was full blown confusion. The deal made little sense- seemingly pulling the team away from the youth movement without getting enough back to contend.

4) Weeks later: The Kevin Garnett rumors went from background noise to ground shaking reality. Everything changed. Everything was suddenly clear.


What I'm writing here is really about Danny Ainge and the Celtics front office, and what an amazing, practically unprecedented thing they're pulling off:
Ainge has been nearly universally maligned by the national press since his arrival.
His standing with the local press has been only slightly better.
It seemed the majority of fans were pretty negative on #44 too.


>>>> A Few Historical Points on All This:

1) Ainge didn't like the Celtic team he took over. They had peaked, had fading- not particularly talented players, and had few assets to trade.

2) From the first moment he said he was going to acquire trading chips and eventually use them.

3) He didn't use them right away but instead kept accruing more and more youth. When questioned about this, his answer was always the same: Despite trying constantly, he did not expect to be unable to make any major trades for veteran stars. He did not expect to keep all the young guys for so long. He was always working on changing that. He was not going to trade away his top young guys just for the sake of doing it. He was waiting for the right deal.

Most people didn't believe him for some reason.


4) The trade with Minnesota did include two draft picks, but one of them was Minnesota's own first rounder back. That one had protections on it that made it very likely it was going to turn into a second rounder in a few years. The other first rounder is going to be in the mid twenties or worse.

5) As has been pointed out, virtually EVERY SINGLE DEAL Ainge has ever done: the Antoine trade, the LaFrentz/Telfair (Roy) trade, both Szczerbiak trades, the Cleveland deal, the Detroit deal- resulted in assets that were later turned into Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett.

6) He apparently targeted Ratliff's expiring contract as it was the biggest in the league heading into a year when many major names were coming on the market. That may have been a coincidence, but probably not.

7) Over the years he drafted very well with mid to late picks and second rounders, selecting: Jefferson, Green, Gomes, and West among others. Those young players plus a few large movable contracts were enough to make what is a franchise transformation of historical proportions.

So... whether this all will end up in a championship or not remains to be seen, but:

Every other contender in the league depends on players the age of Garnett, Pierce and Allen.

The Celtics have given up four fine young players, a few with star potential. They added two bonafide stars and kept Rondo (which was a dealbreaker in both the Minnesota and Seattle trades). Both McHale and Presti pushed hard for Rondo.

Their bench is going to look a lot better on the floor than it does on paper as most of the reserves will spend half their time left alone while the opposition scrambles to double team Pierce, Allen, and Garnett at once. (For example, you think Eddie House can knock down an open 3? Because that's what he's going to be seeing.)

Yes it's risky. But keeping all the young guys would be risky too, and the payoff from doing that would come years down the road, if ever.


>>>> Some Words on The Trade To Set Up The Next Trade:

1) Danny Ainge made the Ray Allen trade to set up the Kevin Garnett deal. That's amazing enough...

2) ...but as RealGM poster CalderCup wrote: "They only signed Pollard in order to woo Miller out of retirement, they're great friends from back in the day. It's all part of Danny's master plan."

I thought about that for a while, and it's probably true. Pollard and Miller are close from their time at Indiana. Danny Ainge used the set up technique twice this offseason. Plus, if you factor in the recent and future free agents that will sign with Boston to join the fun, that's a lot of added value coming out of the lottery malaise and the initial Ray Allen deal.

Whether everyone stays healthy and it all blends into a championship team remains to be seen, but one thing has been established: This is an incredibly creative sequence of moves by the Celtics front office.

ESPN was wrong. The Boston Globe was wrong. This is in fact a very clever front office.


...Now they just need a little luck and health.

Friday, August 17, 2007

In defense of pink hats

There comes a time in every man's life where he faces an issue that transcends personal interest, an issue of such magnitude and sweeping importance that it cannot be ignored. Even if he is in the minority, a man must stand tall and speak out for what is right, regardless of the consequences.

That day has come. Pink Celtic hats are such an issue. The time for silence has ended. Let us begin...

Now just so you know where I'm coming from- I'm speaking as someone who is against cheerleaders, against jumbotrons, against T-shirt cannons, against mascots, against any in game music not played live on an organ. and against leisurely summer days. In other words I'm not usually open to change; but pink Celtic hats are fine by me. Yes they are.

Sure, it is likely that wearers of such oddly colored headgear might not know quite as much history of the franchise as you would hope. They might not be able tell Sam from KC, carry on a lengthy conversation about Hambone Williams, or enthusiastically discuss obscure nuances of the salary cap...

...but let me point something out. They're coming on board to a team that's going to be a lot of fun to watch, a team that will win, that will play the game right, and has a shot at a title. In other words, the PHer's are smart. Give them credit for that.

Look in the mirror. You know who's not smart? Well I'll tell you: Me for one. And you for another. We who have closely followed this franchise through the years of Stojko Vrankovic, Brett Szabo, Thomas Hamilton and Sebastian Telfair are dangerously insane. New fans should not be measured by those harsh standards.

If more people and new people love the team, that's good. They are not becoming Knicks fans, or God help them Lakers fans. Their hats are not orange and blue, or purple and gold. Their instincts are good and pure and true- they want to be Celtic fans. They are following a noble call.

Remember that pink hat wearer is a human being. That could be someone's sister, someone's mother, someone's pink headed significant other.

Think of pink as a transition color on the road to pure beautiful green. This is the era of an entire new race of embryonic Celtic fans. Welcome these creatures from another world. Show them our simple ways and traditions. Soon they will take us hand in hand as banner 17 is raised. Together we will build a new society- finer, better, and more tolerant to all.


I thank you.

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Rondo crunching

You've heard it. You've read it. Maybe you've even said it: "The Celtics can't win because Rondo can't shoot."

Grrrrr! Now I'm mad! It's debunking time!


I'm not a huge stat guy. Oh sure those moneyball sorts get all the GM jobs nowadays, get to eat a wide variety of delicious Hostess snacks, and the girls just love them; but I like the beauty of basketball on the floor, played right. I usually don't worship at the altar of numbers.

I'm making an exception here. (Warning, as always numbers may be chosen carefully to suit a nefarious agenda. Please kindly insert diabolical laughter now.)


I looked up some numbers on Rajon Rondo. Here's where I start cheating things a little, because I'm throwing out the first part of the season where Rajon got limited, inconsistent minutes. I'm only using numbers from the games he started.


* Rondo started 25 games last season. Let's measure how he did as a starter only vs. the other point guards around the league who played significant minutes- in other words, basically against other starters.

There were 21 point guards who "qualified" for the field goal % stat by making 3.7 field goals per team game (not my cut-off threshold, I got it off Yahoo).

Where do you think Rondo ranks as a starter in fg% against the top 21 point guards of the NBA?
The answer is 4th! That's right FOURTH, virtually tied for third. As a starter Rondo shot 47.4% from the field. Only Steve Nash and Tony Parker were significantly ahead of him. He beat out every other point in the league. Most by a wide margin.

The biggest reason? Rondo is smart. He only shoots good shots.


Yes he is a liability is certain circumstances when he absolutely must take an outside shot. Yes he must improve that skill, but he's no liability as a percentage shooter. Just the opposite; he's an asset.


A few other Rondo stats found at the same time- measured only as a starter against "qualified" point guards ("qualified" in these other stats usually means a much longer list than 21 guys):

He's a bad free thrower: dead last at his position at 66.7%.
but...
**He's by far the #1 point in the league in steals at 2.4 per game**
His assists rank in the top third. Do you think that will go up- tossing to Ray Allen instead of Allan Ray?
Turnovers were about average.
**In rebounds he ranks second only to Jason Kidd**

This is a small statistical sample (I earned myself a twinkie with that statement) and Rondo is a young player, at point, going into his second season, so there's plenty of uncertainty around him.

He's playing with Pierce, Garnett and Allen now. His job just got a lot easier in many ways. He's fast as two cats, has hands the size of Michigan, and is smart and eager. He has the ability to become one of the best point defenders around.

Rajon Rondo is not the weak link. He's a weapon.





*Disclaimer: Due to the small sample size of 25 games, all conclusions mentioned above may be completely false in which case the management disavows any knowledge of this post. (If that happens do I still get my moneyball twinkie?)

Friday, August 10, 2007

Don't worry about Reggie (a reggietorial)

Reggie Miller could become a Celtic.

Huh...

I could probably end right there, but won't-- Here's the single factor to keep in mind when considering the whole greenreggie phenomenon that could be unfolding. It's the only thing any of us needs to remember: Reggie will not embarrass himself. WILL NOT.

The only way Reggie will suit up and give it a try in training camp is if he has a strong notion that he'll be able to play and play well; that he'll hurt other teams and not himself; that he'll drive Spike Lee crazy and not Celtic fans. (By the way Spike, fabulous A+ job on your Denzel Washington tour de force The Inside Man. That movie was so terrific, I can't believe a Knicks fan made it.)


Back to Reggie:

* He's working out hard over the coming days, seeing if his body can give it a try. If the answer is yes...

* ...he'll go to training camp. If he's effective there that would be great...

* ...then he'll commit to the team and don the best looking uniform he's ever worn, and he'll play.

Let me stress this again, and I cannot emphasize it enough: *He will only play this season If He Can Play.* In other words, if he's on the Celtics this season, he's there to sting people with his jumpers and earn a ring, not to wave a towel on the sidelines and get one by default. It's a no lose proposition for both Mr. Miller and the Celtics. Either Reggie will be effective or he won't even try. There won't be any in between.

No one's done it before? That doesn't mean it can't be done. If anyone can play well at age 42, he can.

Here's hoping Reggie Miller has still got it. Here's hoping he joins the three current stars and makes this a hall of fame quartet.

Above all, let the good times roll. Every single person reading this does not need to be reminded how long and difficult of a wait it has been. The Celtics are back baby! November can't come soon enough!

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

10 things on a dog day in August

1) Steals Of The Draft: Every year about this time, the internet is abuzz with "steals of the draft" talk. There are somewhere between 25 and 35 steals of the draft right now. Quite a few teams have two or more. This will quickly be whittled down when many of these stealy types either sit on the bench and don't play, or play and look like they ought to be sitting on the bench.

Do the Celtics have a Steal Of The Draft? Probably not. I dunno.


2) There won't be much chance of any steals of the draft in Phoenix in this or in coming years, because the Suns owner keeps giving draft picks away for canvas bags with cartoon dollar signs on them. This is what happens when you're a measly multi-hundred millionaire and all your pals are billionaires. You know what it's like to be in that position? Well I'll tell you- It sucks. You feel bad. You just don't have enough money.

Life is filled with ironies like that.


3) The August 5th Shira Springer article in the Globe breaking down the timeline of THE TRADE was a great one. Tyronn Lue (who I just recently spoke of here as having a great relationship with Doc Rivers) was instrumental in influencing Mr. Garnett to consent to the move. Lue is entering the last year of his contract. Here's a prediction: If Doc is here the season after this one, Lue will be too.

This is the type of thing I hoped would happen when Rivers was hired. He really is well liked everywhere, and that's a plus in drawing players provided the team is winning.



4) Also mentioned in that article: "The Timberwolves expressed strong interest in point guard of the future Rajon Rondo throughout the process, but they could not pry him from the Celtics' grasp..."

This is exactly the same circumstance as happened in Seattle. Presti pushed hard for Rondo, but the Celtics wouldn't budge.

Let me state this another way... It appears that giving up Rondo was a potential dealbreaker in BOTH the Ray Allen trade and Kevin Garnett trade... something to think about for those fretting about point guard performance.

I'm not worried about point. Other teams need to worry about Rondo.


5) Scalabrine and Doc Rivers are two overly maligned figures who, in my humble opinion, are about to show why they were hired in the first place. I'm looking for big years from both, and I'm also looking forward to reading "We CAN'T trade Scal!" comments by mid year. That would be funny.


6) Someone recently brought up the subject of that hideous winter night when Garden patrons chanted "MVP" to Kobe Bryant. It appears the real fans had stayed away allowing cretinous celebrity groupies to buy tickets and howl their morbid chant...

...although I do have an alternate theory: I believe that it was actually loyal Celtic fans calling out "MVP" that evening, but that they were referring to Most Virulent Personality.

At any rate, those repellent days are behind us and the new Celtic juggernaut will steamroll the Lakers for a while, leaving little purple and gold puddles behind after each contest.


7) A difference between the Szczerbiak trade and the Garnett trade: After the first trade Minnesota and Boston fans hated each other's teams. After this trade they love each other's teams.

8) An entire generation of Boston fans only has word-of-mouth knowledge of great Celtic basketball. They've never seen it- never felt it. That fool's gold Obieball Eastern finals run a few years back was their peak experience. This coming year is huge for the younger fans. The older fans will have their flame rekindled; the younger ones will finally have something to hold on to aside from stories.

9) The quote by Ainge that Garnett will play some center this season makes sense. It means that center will sometimes be a sure strong spot, and opens up the possibilty of minutes for Big Baby and Powe, should they earn them.

10) Chicago and Toronto fans as well as some of the dark sorcerers of the Boston Globe seem to be hanging their hats on the theory that depth will overcome a trio of great stars. I'm here to tell you nice folks, that hardly ever happens.

As eloquently written by Realgm's Elrod Enchilada many times: Teams with depth but without great players usually fall short; while teams with the best players usually win.

Thursday, August 2, 2007

10 consequences of the trade

1) On realgm, I spent most of last spring reading the Memphis and Milwaukee boards, culminating in the surreal highlight of the season- that tanktastic contest against the Bucks with two weeks left that "clinched" more ping pong combos.

Now I'm happily looking at the Suns, Spurs, Pistons, and Mavs boards.


2) On a related note, I couldn't stand to peek at the Portland board after the lottery. Now I look over there and read again and again just how great things will be for them in a few years when their talented young guys get some experience. Man, that's vaguely and unsettlingly familiar....

3) I no longer care about Yi. He has no place on the current Celtics. They need guys who can help win now.

4) Steven A Smith picks the Celtic to do great. I don't know what to say about this odd turn of events. The only thing more surprising is if he would choose to speak softly and thoughtfully.

5) The Red Sox made a big trade the same day, and though FSNE covered Garnett and the Celtics for two hours that evening, I don't think they mentioned the Red Sox (or Patriots) once. NOT ONCE! Cripes, it wasn't that long ago that Celtic halftimes were hot stove reports.

6) There will be no more "second five" playing on the court at the same time- except of course when the Celtics are up 20 with four minutes left- which with any luck will be fairly frequent. Instead, two or three of the BIG 3.2 will be on the floor at all times. The rotation should be tighter and shorter with anyone not ready to produce wins right now, sitting.

7) EDDIE HOUSE: He's the team's Steve Kerr or Craig Hodges (two of the luckiest guys this sport has ever seen). He's a quick release dead eye downtowner. All he's gotta do is dribble the ball upcourt, stand on the perimeter for 5 to 10 seconds and wait for the inevitable kickout after the opposition defense scrambles to double team all three of the main guys at once. House will get open looks galore.

8) Due to his creative shot selection, I grew to despise Antoine Walker at one point. However he's always been reputed to be a great guy off court, and after selling Garnett on the city of Boston, I will never ever again get on Antoine's case. That was a generous and decent thing he did.

9) I've said this before- Tony Allen is coming off *major* knee surgery. The chances of him being a full fledged contributor should be tempered for a while. Maybe he can really play with confidence by mid season if we're lucky. That's why they've signed Wallace and Manuel.

10) THE RICK ROBEY/GERALD HENDERSON PHENOMENON: For the same reason that House will get so many open shots, the "other guys" are going to look great (and if needed, their trade value will rise). So much defensive attention will have to be paid to Pierce, Garnett, and Allen, everyone else will contribute at unexpectedly high levels. Rondo and Perkins especially should benefit.

...by the way, speaking of Perk, has anyone else noticed that if you arrange the letters from Pierce, Allen, and Garnett's first names, it spells PRK? Coincidence? Perhaps. Or perhaps it's a sign from the hoop gods of a vast repositioning of stars, one that signifies the universe coming back into realignment: A good universe. A kind universe. A green universe. A universe where banners get hung from welcoming rafters.