With all the exhibition games done, the Celtics final preseason record is 4 wins, 3 losses, and 1 Worcester. The general sense of euphoria that recently saturated the great nation of Greenistan was moderated briefly after the visit to Gotham and Jersey. Many Greenistanis became restless. They questioned themselves: “How is my depth? What happens if the other team presses my vulnerable back up point guard? My chest is pounding. I’m having trouble breathing. Where is my back up big man? Will help be coming soon?”
All good topics for thought, especially difficulty breathing.
Hey, It’s preseason. The team was 4-0 playing their starters. Let the real games begin. Two quick wins and everybody will be flying high. Two quick losses and there will be widespread despair. That’s just human nature.
My unsolicited advice: Gently down the stream. It’s many months to springtime.
The Celtics do need another big person. Danny Ainge saw what you and I saw. As we speak he’s working on acquiring another exceedingly large individual.
In the meantime Kendrick Perkins’ hamstring remains #1 on the most watched muscles list. If Perkins is healthy, then Garnett can stay at power forward; no one can use brawnyball on Boston; the interior defense and rebounding is fortified; and the Celtics will win as they should. But if Perkins is out teams can take advantage of Boston inside as the Knicks did in Madison Square Garden.
* Here’s another important factor to keep in mind at season’s start— Do you recall how exceptionally good Phoenix was last year? Well remember this- they started really REALLY slow. They got Euroed, suffering a debilitating case of communal jet lag and began last year 1-5. It took them a month to feel normal.
For this reason only, I don’t like the overseas exhibitions. I would not be shocked to see Boston start out fairly slowly as well.
* I’m highly optimistic about this season, but as long as I’m complaining, here’s everything else I don’t like right now:
1) I have mixed feelings about the new Comcast Gary Tanguay/Donny Marshall studio. It should be green. Blue? What is this the Knicks pregame set?
2) I don't like this unoffical "Big Three" ban. Tommy Heinsohn was saying "Big Three” before sinister forces seemingly got to him. GPA, PGA, New Three, Trio Grande, Triumphant Triumvirate— give me a break! Do you think Larry, Kevin, and Robert care? This isn't like the King Arthur saga where Pierce, Allen, and Garnett have to jointly pull the sword from the stone to claim their rightful place on the throne of England. It's a simple descriptive phrase. "Big Three." Tommy said it. I just said it and there were no lightning bolts. Everybody can say it. Anyone who doesn't want to, doesn't have to.
If the phrase was sacred, they wouldn’t be able to use it in New Jersey to describe Vince Carter and his cronies.
3) Scot Pollard's ankle. I don't like it unhealthy. Somebody fix it.
...That's all I got. That's how magnificent a summer this has been. I love this team. I'm ecstatic. Look- there’s a few more holes to be corked, but this is all very exciting and I can't wait for the real games to begin.
* Defense. Mike Gorman made a wise comment on CSL last Sunday about how much he liked the Celtics on defense. If it's anywhere that the Celtics are being underestimated by followers of other franchises (those poor lost souls) it's on D. This is going to be a fine defensive team. Pierce is way better than given credit for. We all know what Perkins and Rondo can do. But mostly it's Kevin Garnett (at power forward please). The big tickety fella just ties the whole thing together. You can't go inside on Boston anymore. Most teams will have to resort to outside shooting to compete with the Celtics. Most will fall short. ...as long as Perk’s hamstring is ok. Everything depends on having a big strong guy in the middle.
By the way Thank You Justin Poulin for adjusting the Celticsstufflive podcast so it doesn't break up on me anymore. (The CSLers are very good and well worth a listen for anyone who hasn't heard their show.)
* Big Baby looked great against Cleveland and in the Izod center (Cripes I hate arenas and stadiums being named after corporations. It’s like selling your soul.) Glen Davis has a chance to be fabulous. I really hope he’s able to work his way into the rotation at a not too distant date. In limited minutes, he seems to push the WOW! button at least a few times a game. Danny Ainge is uncanny in the second round.
* Oh yeah on that Minnesota/Miami trade: Yipes! Are you freakin’ kidding me?!? Hang on. I gotta edit myself here. (After some sober thought I deleted the two scathingly over the top paragraphs I wrote right after hearing about this.)
ahem... Instead I just hope everyone involved becomes a contributing member of society, that no one is too flabby to meet Miami’s scrupulous body fat standards, and that all future three point attempts resulting from this deal are sane shots with a reasonable chance of going in. Let’s just leave it there.
* That’s it. The 2007-2008 festivities commence in a few days. For what it’s worth (very little, believe me) here’s my prediction: One more roster move early. An uneven start, picking up steam after a few weeks. Season record: 50-32, though it could be better if they have excellent health.
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Monday, October 22, 2007
Phases of the game
One of the best ways to size up a team is to look at the different phases of the game and see where the strengths and weaknesses are. Since this is pretty much a whole new roster, stats from last season don't mean anything. Still I'll throw some of last year's differentials in to give this some foundation and to indicate just how far the Celtics have come during the enchanted summer of 2007.
Rebounding:
The boards have been a recent team weakness for the Celtics (which tends to happen when you play Mark Blount at center and Walter McCarty at power forward) so I was a bit surprised to see that last season's inexperienced and injured group actually held their own on the glass. They were 14th in the league at -.01, virtually getting the same number of rebounds as the opponent.
Oddly, rebounding differential is not a great indicator of success. The best at it from last year were Utah at +5.5 and the Knicks at +4.4. San Antonio was down the list a ways at +1.6 and Phoenix was near the bottom at -2.3.
This year's team is going to play the main men a lot. The have big plus rebounders in Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo at three positions, and the new healthier leaner Perkins should also come out ahead. As long as Garnett and Perkins can stay on the floor the team should do very well here. Leon Powe and Hisbabyness will also chip in.
Passing:
Last year's Celts were near the bottom at -2.2 in assist differential. By far the best three teams were Phoenix, Utah, and San Antonio. No surprise there.
The current Greenies have dramatically improved their passing. Perkins and especially Garnett can both really toss it from the big positions. Ray Allen and Pierce have often been the best passers on their respective teams. Rondo should just have an eye popping year in this category. He's going to have his choice of wide open all-stars on a regular basis. Assists do come a lot more easily if you have some real shooters.
Turnovers:
Unfortunately this is one of the categories last year's squad did really well in. They were adept at giving the ball away, coming in fifth in TO differential at +1.1. The Knicks ran away with the crown here with a whopping +3.0, giving back most of what they gained on the boards. This stat can sometimes be misleading as running teams tend to throw it away (what they call good turnovers) and deliberate teams tend to keep turnovers down. (Last year's young Celtics just didn't cherish the ball. This year's vet team will.)
Which leads to a note on Tempo. Doc Rivers has stated that this year's squad will be an uptempo team though not a running team in the Phoenix Suns mode. They don't have the roster to be out and out sprinters, but they are mobile and skilled, and will benefit from a quick motion offense. They have the talent to impose their tempo on just about any team in the league.
Scoring Efficiency:
Boston was 7th from last in point differential at -3.4. That's actually not bad for the second worst team. San Antonio, Phoenix and Dallas dominated this stat. In straight up FG% the Celtics were second worst overall at 44.3% despite shooting well from three point range. In FG% differential, the Celtics were dead last in the NBA at -2.5%.
Needless to say, this year's star laden roster should be near the top of the league in both scoring differential stats. They could even go all the way from worst to first.
Defense:
The other side of the FG% deficiency was the lack of defense last season. The Celtics gained a truly gifted, agile frontcourt defender in Garnett, fortifying their #1 weakness from the previous year. Perkins is more mobile than he's ever been. Posey, Tony Allen and Rondo are all very good to great defenders. Paul Pierce is poised to have his best defensive season ever now that he doesn't have to spend every possession on that end replenishing his oxygen.
Chemistry:
I have no doubt at all that the starting unit will play very well and also play a lot of minutes. You just can't take these type of quality players, put them on the court together, and not see success.
Are they tough enough? Do they have intangibles going their way? Are they hungry? Yes, yes, and where's the buffet table?
Depth:
If there is a concern it's still with depth, at least to some degree. There's no surefire Antonio McDyess coming in to spell the big men, and some say the back up point situation needs to be watched.
A healthy ankle for Scot Pollard would help a bit. Other than that someone needs to emerge as a reliable back-up large guy whether it be Scalabrine, Powe, or the esteemed Mr. Baby.
There are still possibilities for another acquisition at back up point. Rumor has it that Memphis has the potential to be involved here and one look at their roster tells you why: They have Conley, Lowry, Stoudamire, and Navarro all at the position; and it's hard to see them carrying four point guards very far into the season. They may wait to see how their young guys look before dealing Stoudamire, but they'll make a move at some not-too-distant date. Maybe they did bring Navarro in mainly to pal around with Pau, but few clubs carry four points. (Juan Carlos is too short to play much shooting guard, right?)
Likewise Portland has four at the position, not to mention another stashed overseas. Blake and Jack seem like they'll stick with the Blazers. Taurean Green has looked good so far. That leaves flashy Sergio Rodriguez as the possible odd man out. The Celtics might be looking for someone a little more experienced and poised than Rodriguez (they already have their own young developing point in Pruitt).
Personally I think Eddie House will be the back up point and will do just fine. Whatever remaining assets the front office has would be much better spent acquiring an unusually tall person.
Finishing this thing off where it began- Evaluating the new Boston Celtics obviously can't be done based on any team statistics from last season or before. You look at what it takes to win on the basketball floor in every phase of the game (and I mean REALLY win) and all you see are strengths on top of strengths. There remain a few questions of depth, and a lot of unknowns in chemistry and tempo, but overall this is one formidable looking group. No matter what the game situation calls for —defense, rebounding, or an end of game play— the Celtics have the personnel to match it.
I actually was not setting out to statistically prove that last year's team was bad. Everybody's already painfully aware of that. Instead the point is this: The 07-08 Celtics look really good in every aspect of the game. When you do that, you win big.
Rebounding:
The boards have been a recent team weakness for the Celtics (which tends to happen when you play Mark Blount at center and Walter McCarty at power forward) so I was a bit surprised to see that last season's inexperienced and injured group actually held their own on the glass. They were 14th in the league at -.01, virtually getting the same number of rebounds as the opponent.
Oddly, rebounding differential is not a great indicator of success. The best at it from last year were Utah at +5.5 and the Knicks at +4.4. San Antonio was down the list a ways at +1.6 and Phoenix was near the bottom at -2.3.
This year's team is going to play the main men a lot. The have big plus rebounders in Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo at three positions, and the new healthier leaner Perkins should also come out ahead. As long as Garnett and Perkins can stay on the floor the team should do very well here. Leon Powe and Hisbabyness will also chip in.
Passing:
Last year's Celts were near the bottom at -2.2 in assist differential. By far the best three teams were Phoenix, Utah, and San Antonio. No surprise there.
The current Greenies have dramatically improved their passing. Perkins and especially Garnett can both really toss it from the big positions. Ray Allen and Pierce have often been the best passers on their respective teams. Rondo should just have an eye popping year in this category. He's going to have his choice of wide open all-stars on a regular basis. Assists do come a lot more easily if you have some real shooters.
Turnovers:
Unfortunately this is one of the categories last year's squad did really well in. They were adept at giving the ball away, coming in fifth in TO differential at +1.1. The Knicks ran away with the crown here with a whopping +3.0, giving back most of what they gained on the boards. This stat can sometimes be misleading as running teams tend to throw it away (what they call good turnovers) and deliberate teams tend to keep turnovers down. (Last year's young Celtics just didn't cherish the ball. This year's vet team will.)
Which leads to a note on Tempo. Doc Rivers has stated that this year's squad will be an uptempo team though not a running team in the Phoenix Suns mode. They don't have the roster to be out and out sprinters, but they are mobile and skilled, and will benefit from a quick motion offense. They have the talent to impose their tempo on just about any team in the league.
Scoring Efficiency:
Boston was 7th from last in point differential at -3.4. That's actually not bad for the second worst team. San Antonio, Phoenix and Dallas dominated this stat. In straight up FG% the Celtics were second worst overall at 44.3% despite shooting well from three point range. In FG% differential, the Celtics were dead last in the NBA at -2.5%.
Needless to say, this year's star laden roster should be near the top of the league in both scoring differential stats. They could even go all the way from worst to first.
Defense:
The other side of the FG% deficiency was the lack of defense last season. The Celtics gained a truly gifted, agile frontcourt defender in Garnett, fortifying their #1 weakness from the previous year. Perkins is more mobile than he's ever been. Posey, Tony Allen and Rondo are all very good to great defenders. Paul Pierce is poised to have his best defensive season ever now that he doesn't have to spend every possession on that end replenishing his oxygen.
Chemistry:
I have no doubt at all that the starting unit will play very well and also play a lot of minutes. You just can't take these type of quality players, put them on the court together, and not see success.
Are they tough enough? Do they have intangibles going their way? Are they hungry? Yes, yes, and where's the buffet table?
Depth:
If there is a concern it's still with depth, at least to some degree. There's no surefire Antonio McDyess coming in to spell the big men, and some say the back up point situation needs to be watched.
A healthy ankle for Scot Pollard would help a bit. Other than that someone needs to emerge as a reliable back-up large guy whether it be Scalabrine, Powe, or the esteemed Mr. Baby.
There are still possibilities for another acquisition at back up point. Rumor has it that Memphis has the potential to be involved here and one look at their roster tells you why: They have Conley, Lowry, Stoudamire, and Navarro all at the position; and it's hard to see them carrying four point guards very far into the season. They may wait to see how their young guys look before dealing Stoudamire, but they'll make a move at some not-too-distant date. Maybe they did bring Navarro in mainly to pal around with Pau, but few clubs carry four points. (Juan Carlos is too short to play much shooting guard, right?)
Likewise Portland has four at the position, not to mention another stashed overseas. Blake and Jack seem like they'll stick with the Blazers. Taurean Green has looked good so far. That leaves flashy Sergio Rodriguez as the possible odd man out. The Celtics might be looking for someone a little more experienced and poised than Rodriguez (they already have their own young developing point in Pruitt).
Personally I think Eddie House will be the back up point and will do just fine. Whatever remaining assets the front office has would be much better spent acquiring an unusually tall person.
Finishing this thing off where it began- Evaluating the new Boston Celtics obviously can't be done based on any team statistics from last season or before. You look at what it takes to win on the basketball floor in every phase of the game (and I mean REALLY win) and all you see are strengths on top of strengths. There remain a few questions of depth, and a lot of unknowns in chemistry and tempo, but overall this is one formidable looking group. No matter what the game situation calls for —defense, rebounding, or an end of game play— the Celtics have the personnel to match it.
I actually was not setting out to statistically prove that last year's team was bad. Everybody's already painfully aware of that. Instead the point is this: The 07-08 Celtics look really good in every aspect of the game. When you do that, you win big.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
10 things after Europe
1) Just a few months ago we were mourning our crummy ping pong karma. We thought we had done everything right: We'd ardently prayed to the Hoop Gods. Many Celtic fans had meticulously faked morally sound behavior in hopes of gaining divine favor. Covering all bases, we even went coldly rational and sacrificed games in order to increase lottery percentages. By season's end plenty of greenophiles cheered hard for tactical losses and mourned unnecessary wins.
When those fickle little white balls were finally counted, it seemed to have all been for nothing. The Celtics ended up with the worst possible 5th pick. Ugh. Man did that ever hurt.
As the draft approached I was wishing for skinny raw Yi. Here it is only four months later and I'm sizing up San Antonio for exploitable matchups. This is beyond amazing. Not to take away from Danny Ainge's skill, but I think that phony morally-upright scheme we had going really helped a lot. The Hoop Gods appreciate all heartfelt efforts, even karmic fakery.
It's beseeching time. Please bow your heads and pray with me now: "Thank you almighty Hoop Gods. Every one of us will be unusually good this season. We will eat our vegetables and turn out the lights when we leave the room. We promise. One more thing: omnipotent Ones, if you must use your terrible swift swords, please continue to smite others and not us. You Guys are the best. Amen."
2) On the subject of luck— winners earn their status but every one of them is also fortunate. Look around the league. This has been THE summer for bad luck and bad news: The ref scandal. The Knicks scandal. Major injuries in LA, Charlotte, and especially Portland. The Blazers were soaring on draft day, supercharged by two years of bold moves and even better good fortune. Now there's nothing but question marks in the great northwest.
The point is, something fundamental seems to have changed. The Celtics have brought in formidable talent but just as importantly they've gotten their enchanted mojo working again for the first time in many years. The bad luck is everywhere but here. Welcome back to the leprechaun! Where the heck have you been for the past two decades, you feisty little emerald slacker?
3) The games in Europe have created an unusual preseason schedule: Two games overseas, then a long break to recuperate. There's a week in between London and the next contest. That's followed by five games in seven nights. (Hah! Nights! In your face Aristotle!)
I believe Sean Grande pointed this out on the last CSL podcast: 5 games in 7 nights means this is when the final roster spots will be won. Pierce, Garnett, and Allen will need rest and the bubble players will get their chance. Everyone knows there are four bubblers battling for two jobs. Big Batista will have to look really bad to not make it. Manuel has practically no shot at staying, so the last spot comes down to Wallace or Jones. I'm a card carrying Wallace guy but may the best man win.
4) The Celtics played really well in Rome. The team turned over 3/5 of their roster, so it was a group of guys playing together for the first time. As the players get more accustomed to one another, they will dramatically improve, and that shouldn't take long. We're not waiting for skill development to see positive change anymore; all that has to happen is veterans getting used to each other.
5) Media coverage of this preseason has been fantastic. Newspaper beat reporters are doing a good job while travelling with the team in Europe. There's extended broadcasts on Comcast on the TV side. On radio WEEI is on board now that they're airing the games. On top of all that, there's been groundbreaking blog coverage with great behind the scenes reports from both Fabio Anderle on Celticsblog and Peter Stringer on his own Euroblog.
This buzz is taking place at the same time the local baseball club is favored to win it all, and the local football team appears invincible.
6) Do you think this season will see the largest cumulative rise ever in wins for the previous year's three worst teams? Milwaukee, Memphis, and Boston look good, good, and damn good respectively.
7) Conversely in the upper left corner, Sacramento, Seattle and Portland look bad, bad, and damn unlucky (all of a sudden). Minnesota's going to struggle too, but I don't feel right saying anything negative about the Wolves.
8) After two preseason games the Udonis Haslem Effect is squarely showing itself in the newly lean and leaping Kendrick Perkins. (The U.H.E.: when a decent player is effective beyond all expectations because the opposition is too busy covering his superstar teammates.) Perk was wide open time and again. He shot perfectly against Toronto and had his own mini dunkathon in London as the Wolves interior defense kept leaving him to double Garnett.
9) As for Mr. Rondo, he led the team in assists for the first two games. That modest accomplishment wouldn't normally be worth mentioning, but a real passing point has not been seen in Boston for many years. Get this: The point guard has been leading the team in passing. The big guys have been leading in rebounding. And the wings have been leading in scoring. Why that's just the way it's supposed to be!
Paul Pierce must be in heaven. He can concentrate his considerable skills towards what is required for each contest. He no longer has to lead the team in everything all the time.
10) Mike Gorman mentioned at the end of the London telecast that he thought Celtics fans could get excited about this club. I think we're already way there. We've all done more than enough waiting. The leprechaun is back. The Hoop Gods are wearing green again. All eyes are focused on the Celtics.
Our time is now.
When those fickle little white balls were finally counted, it seemed to have all been for nothing. The Celtics ended up with the worst possible 5th pick. Ugh. Man did that ever hurt.
As the draft approached I was wishing for skinny raw Yi. Here it is only four months later and I'm sizing up San Antonio for exploitable matchups. This is beyond amazing. Not to take away from Danny Ainge's skill, but I think that phony morally-upright scheme we had going really helped a lot. The Hoop Gods appreciate all heartfelt efforts, even karmic fakery.
It's beseeching time. Please bow your heads and pray with me now: "Thank you almighty Hoop Gods. Every one of us will be unusually good this season. We will eat our vegetables and turn out the lights when we leave the room. We promise. One more thing: omnipotent Ones, if you must use your terrible swift swords, please continue to smite others and not us. You Guys are the best. Amen."
2) On the subject of luck— winners earn their status but every one of them is also fortunate. Look around the league. This has been THE summer for bad luck and bad news: The ref scandal. The Knicks scandal. Major injuries in LA, Charlotte, and especially Portland. The Blazers were soaring on draft day, supercharged by two years of bold moves and even better good fortune. Now there's nothing but question marks in the great northwest.
The point is, something fundamental seems to have changed. The Celtics have brought in formidable talent but just as importantly they've gotten their enchanted mojo working again for the first time in many years. The bad luck is everywhere but here. Welcome back to the leprechaun! Where the heck have you been for the past two decades, you feisty little emerald slacker?
3) The games in Europe have created an unusual preseason schedule: Two games overseas, then a long break to recuperate. There's a week in between London and the next contest. That's followed by five games in seven nights. (Hah! Nights! In your face Aristotle!)
I believe Sean Grande pointed this out on the last CSL podcast: 5 games in 7 nights means this is when the final roster spots will be won. Pierce, Garnett, and Allen will need rest and the bubble players will get their chance. Everyone knows there are four bubblers battling for two jobs. Big Batista will have to look really bad to not make it. Manuel has practically no shot at staying, so the last spot comes down to Wallace or Jones. I'm a card carrying Wallace guy but may the best man win.
4) The Celtics played really well in Rome. The team turned over 3/5 of their roster, so it was a group of guys playing together for the first time. As the players get more accustomed to one another, they will dramatically improve, and that shouldn't take long. We're not waiting for skill development to see positive change anymore; all that has to happen is veterans getting used to each other.
5) Media coverage of this preseason has been fantastic. Newspaper beat reporters are doing a good job while travelling with the team in Europe. There's extended broadcasts on Comcast on the TV side. On radio WEEI is on board now that they're airing the games. On top of all that, there's been groundbreaking blog coverage with great behind the scenes reports from both Fabio Anderle on Celticsblog and Peter Stringer on his own Euroblog.
This buzz is taking place at the same time the local baseball club is favored to win it all, and the local football team appears invincible.
6) Do you think this season will see the largest cumulative rise ever in wins for the previous year's three worst teams? Milwaukee, Memphis, and Boston look good, good, and damn good respectively.
7) Conversely in the upper left corner, Sacramento, Seattle and Portland look bad, bad, and damn unlucky (all of a sudden). Minnesota's going to struggle too, but I don't feel right saying anything negative about the Wolves.
8) After two preseason games the Udonis Haslem Effect is squarely showing itself in the newly lean and leaping Kendrick Perkins. (The U.H.E.: when a decent player is effective beyond all expectations because the opposition is too busy covering his superstar teammates.) Perk was wide open time and again. He shot perfectly against Toronto and had his own mini dunkathon in London as the Wolves interior defense kept leaving him to double Garnett.
9) As for Mr. Rondo, he led the team in assists for the first two games. That modest accomplishment wouldn't normally be worth mentioning, but a real passing point has not been seen in Boston for many years. Get this: The point guard has been leading the team in passing. The big guys have been leading in rebounding. And the wings have been leading in scoring. Why that's just the way it's supposed to be!
Paul Pierce must be in heaven. He can concentrate his considerable skills towards what is required for each contest. He no longer has to lead the team in everything all the time.
10) Mike Gorman mentioned at the end of the London telecast that he thought Celtics fans could get excited about this club. I think we're already way there. We've all done more than enough waiting. The leprechaun is back. The Hoop Gods are wearing green again. All eyes are focused on the Celtics.
Our time is now.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
Pitchforks and Point Guards
Pitchforks
As you know, there exists a highly motivated subculture of Celtic diehards who live for one purpose only. They regularly meet in the basements of eerie castles during thunderstorms and practice dark rituals, hoping to bring about Doc Rivers' demise. I've never attended. Have you?
I like Doc. He's a good coach (that statement just made a hundred werewolves howl in unison). Down. Slowly place your pitchfork down on to the floor. Gently, gently; that's it. Please hear me out.
Remember the AntiDanny Battalion and the Wyc Is Cheap Squadron? They've virtually disbanded. Is it possible the Doc Must Go Society is also endangered? At first glance that seems unlikely: Membership is at an all-time high. Torches are lit. Feathers are stored right next to the tar for easy access. The cauldron oil is bubbling.
Everyone has practiced their angry mob expressions until they've gotten them just right: "There he is! Get him! He won't escape us this time! Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité! To the Bastille!"
I would NOT characterize members of the Doc Must Go Society as "seething." Not at all. It's simply that after much calm discussion and thoughtful reflection, they feel replacing the coach would be a beneficial move for the Celtics. Hey, the DMGSers are my fellow greenhearts. We just happen to disagree on this one little detail...
I've been wrong before. In fact if I were to recount all my past wrong assumptions it would use up way too much bandwidth and cause techno-mayhem, so I'll just leave it at that, but I think there's an excellent possibilty that Doc Rivers is going to be this team's biggest positive surprise.
Here's a list of things I like about Doc:
1) He's a truly decent person and is great with the press, which is crucial in sports-crazy Boston.
2) He knows Celtic history, reveres it, uses it, and doesn't run away from the team's illustrious past like a certain former coach Who Shall Not Be Named.
3) He teaches young guys constantly during games, pulling them aside during timeouts, instructing them as to what they did right and wrong.
4) A lot of young players individually have come a long way in a short time under his tutelage, raising their trade value exponentially.
5) He's a plus when it comes to attracting free agents (the team had to become good for this to be evident).
6) Last year he held the most injury riddled team in the league together spiritually. That group stayed uniformly positive, which is remarkable.
7) He risked his own career last season, creatively increasing ping pong probabilities even though it publicly opened him up to ridicule.
8) He's confident, does not cave in to pressure, and never embarrasses the franchise.
9) He keeps all negative stories in house, never making them public.
10) He *bluntly* plays guys he otherwise would not want to in order to showcase them for a trade.
In other words he has sacrificed his own reputation and even his short term win-loss record for the long term good of the team.
I know... Some say he can't manage games, he can't draw up a play, his teams can't defend the pick and roll, he doesn't set a fixed rotation, and he didn't give (insert name here) a chance. I don't believe any of that is true or without reason:
* His teams have often been near the top of the league in scoring out of timeouts.
* He does draw up plays, but young players can't always execute properly.
* Likewise the pick and roll can only be defended by proper personnel. That personnel is here now; it wasn't before. The pick and roll is impossible to defend anyway when it's run perfectly like Stockton and Malone used to. To stop it consistently you need a long agile big man who can cover space quickly, and it helps to have veterans who've seen it countless times.
* Doc could have set a fixed rotation before, but it wouldn't have helped with wins and would have hurt player development and morale. His recent rosters had too many guys of similar skill and not enough surefire top talent. This has been discussed elsewhere: on good teams the starting lineup is mostly obvious. The Celtics of the past few seasons had multiple guys at nearly every position who were dead even in ability.
* As for not giving (insert name here) a chance— every single player under Rivers has gotten a fair chance. If Insert Name Here wanted to stay in the rotation, Insert Name Here should have played better basketball.
Now everything's changed. Now there ARE right answers. The starters are obvious. So are most of the rotation players. As for Insert Name Here—this season he's been to the all star game numerous times.
Maybe I'm mistaken and Doc will flop this season. If he does he'll be gone; the Celtics don't have the luxury to be patient with this group. On the other hand don't be surprised if they look really good and Doc all of a sudden seems to have added dozens of IQ points. Doc will make the same decisions in the same way he always has; only now with better players, those decisions will work.
This year is not last year. Last year's roster found ways to lose. This year's roster will find ways to win.
If I'm right by January hundreds of pitchforks will have been responsibly recycled into pom poms.
Point Guards
I love Rondo and think he's going to have a tremendous year, but a look at the past reveals that a pure point is not necessary to win championships. Peeking back at Celtic champions, only the Cousy teams had a great pure point guard. After Cousy left it was Sam and KC at guard (there used to be two Joneses, now there are two Allens). The 70s champs had Jo Jo White and Don Chaney; the 80's team had Danny Ainge and DJ. They were all formidable players but none was anything close to a pure point guard. EXCEPT FOR TINY ARCHIBALD. NO ONE COULD POSSIBLY FORGET TINY. The same goes for Jordan's Bulls and the successful but decidedly evil recent Laker titleists.
In other words there are lots of ways to win. You can go out there with two plain old talented guards, some really good passers in the frontcourt, and still kick everybody's butts.
One last word: It's OK if the team goes 3-5 in the preseason. The games don't count. (The league office has confirmed this.)
As you know, there exists a highly motivated subculture of Celtic diehards who live for one purpose only. They regularly meet in the basements of eerie castles during thunderstorms and practice dark rituals, hoping to bring about Doc Rivers' demise. I've never attended. Have you?
I like Doc. He's a good coach (that statement just made a hundred werewolves howl in unison). Down. Slowly place your pitchfork down on to the floor. Gently, gently; that's it. Please hear me out.
Remember the AntiDanny Battalion and the Wyc Is Cheap Squadron? They've virtually disbanded. Is it possible the Doc Must Go Society is also endangered? At first glance that seems unlikely: Membership is at an all-time high. Torches are lit. Feathers are stored right next to the tar for easy access. The cauldron oil is bubbling.
Everyone has practiced their angry mob expressions until they've gotten them just right: "There he is! Get him! He won't escape us this time! Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité! To the Bastille!"
I would NOT characterize members of the Doc Must Go Society as "seething." Not at all. It's simply that after much calm discussion and thoughtful reflection, they feel replacing the coach would be a beneficial move for the Celtics. Hey, the DMGSers are my fellow greenhearts. We just happen to disagree on this one little detail...
I've been wrong before. In fact if I were to recount all my past wrong assumptions it would use up way too much bandwidth and cause techno-mayhem, so I'll just leave it at that, but I think there's an excellent possibilty that Doc Rivers is going to be this team's biggest positive surprise.
Here's a list of things I like about Doc:
1) He's a truly decent person and is great with the press, which is crucial in sports-crazy Boston.
2) He knows Celtic history, reveres it, uses it, and doesn't run away from the team's illustrious past like a certain former coach Who Shall Not Be Named.
3) He teaches young guys constantly during games, pulling them aside during timeouts, instructing them as to what they did right and wrong.
4) A lot of young players individually have come a long way in a short time under his tutelage, raising their trade value exponentially.
5) He's a plus when it comes to attracting free agents (the team had to become good for this to be evident).
6) Last year he held the most injury riddled team in the league together spiritually. That group stayed uniformly positive, which is remarkable.
7) He risked his own career last season, creatively increasing ping pong probabilities even though it publicly opened him up to ridicule.
8) He's confident, does not cave in to pressure, and never embarrasses the franchise.
9) He keeps all negative stories in house, never making them public.
10) He *bluntly* plays guys he otherwise would not want to in order to showcase them for a trade.
In other words he has sacrificed his own reputation and even his short term win-loss record for the long term good of the team.
I know... Some say he can't manage games, he can't draw up a play, his teams can't defend the pick and roll, he doesn't set a fixed rotation, and he didn't give (insert name here) a chance. I don't believe any of that is true or without reason:
* His teams have often been near the top of the league in scoring out of timeouts.
* He does draw up plays, but young players can't always execute properly.
* Likewise the pick and roll can only be defended by proper personnel. That personnel is here now; it wasn't before. The pick and roll is impossible to defend anyway when it's run perfectly like Stockton and Malone used to. To stop it consistently you need a long agile big man who can cover space quickly, and it helps to have veterans who've seen it countless times.
* Doc could have set a fixed rotation before, but it wouldn't have helped with wins and would have hurt player development and morale. His recent rosters had too many guys of similar skill and not enough surefire top talent. This has been discussed elsewhere: on good teams the starting lineup is mostly obvious. The Celtics of the past few seasons had multiple guys at nearly every position who were dead even in ability.
* As for not giving (insert name here) a chance— every single player under Rivers has gotten a fair chance. If Insert Name Here wanted to stay in the rotation, Insert Name Here should have played better basketball.
Now everything's changed. Now there ARE right answers. The starters are obvious. So are most of the rotation players. As for Insert Name Here—this season he's been to the all star game numerous times.
Maybe I'm mistaken and Doc will flop this season. If he does he'll be gone; the Celtics don't have the luxury to be patient with this group. On the other hand don't be surprised if they look really good and Doc all of a sudden seems to have added dozens of IQ points. Doc will make the same decisions in the same way he always has; only now with better players, those decisions will work.
This year is not last year. Last year's roster found ways to lose. This year's roster will find ways to win.
If I'm right by January hundreds of pitchforks will have been responsibly recycled into pom poms.
Point Guards
I love Rondo and think he's going to have a tremendous year, but a look at the past reveals that a pure point is not necessary to win championships. Peeking back at Celtic champions, only the Cousy teams had a great pure point guard. After Cousy left it was Sam and KC at guard (there used to be two Joneses, now there are two Allens). The 70s champs had Jo Jo White and Don Chaney; the 80's team had Danny Ainge and DJ. They were all formidable players but none was anything close to a pure point guard. EXCEPT FOR TINY ARCHIBALD. NO ONE COULD POSSIBLY FORGET TINY. The same goes for Jordan's Bulls and the successful but decidedly evil recent Laker titleists.
In other words there are lots of ways to win. You can go out there with two plain old talented guards, some really good passers in the frontcourt, and still kick everybody's butts.
One last word: It's OK if the team goes 3-5 in the preseason. The games don't count. (The league office has confirmed this.)
Monday, October 1, 2007
The Fourth Window
1) Since the Garnett trade, you've heard statements like:
"The Celtics traded away their future."
"The Celtics will be right back where they were in a few years."
"They threw away everything for stars on the downside."
Mmmm. Questionable words, don't you think?
Last week's article was partly about a door; this week's is mostly about windows. I'm here to talk about the ghosts of championship windows past, present and future:
2) The Ghost Of Windows Past:
What we are about to witness is the 4th window of potential Celtic championships.
Window #3 was the Bird era. Perceived window (the number of seasons people thought the Celtics could contend for the title): around 8 years. Actual window (the time between their first and last titles): 1981 through 1986; 6 years.
Window #2 was the Havlicek/Cowens era. Perceived window: around 5 years. Actual window: 1974 through 1976; 3 years.
Window #1— the Crystal Cathedral of NBA championship windows: 13 years. Actual window: 1957 through 1969; also 13. Russell and company won coming in and won going out; none of this "waiting to gel" stuff, and no long painful decline on the back end. Just wall to wall winning. Amazing.
Listen... angels are singing. Can you hear them?
3) The Ghost of Windows Future:
What am I the danged Oracle of freakin' Delphi? How should I know what will happen next? It doesn't matter right now. Que double-sera.
There's a lot more to say on that subject but for the moment let's concentrate on...
4) The Ghost of Windows Present:
The actual window of the first three green empires was 13, 3, and 6 years respectively. I'm talking about real championships with those numbers, not maybe-could've championships. So here we are after being locked in a dark dungeon for two decades with no windows and a busted door. Suddenly we're looking at a team with a chance to win everything again.
5) How Long Will This 4th Window Last?:
No one knows its duration. When this window closes it might turn out to be surprisingly big or might not ever have been there at all, just an illusion of that deranged prisoner in the dungeon. Right now though it looks very real and very wonderful.
To guess its extent let's realize that the 4th window is not being opened by a rookie like Russell's and Bird's were. Instead look at what Bill Walton calls "The MIddle Dynasty," the Tommy Heinsohn coached blazingly-fast champions of the 1970's. They did have great young players but John Havlicek -the cornerstone of that team's success- was of similar vintage to the current Big Three. The 70s team won two titles in three years. Only a Havlicek shoulder injury in the playoffs kept them from hanging a third banner. As windows go it was fairly short.
But TWO titles... What would TWO titles make you feel like right now?
It's very possible the 4th window could become comparable to the 2nd— easily enough time to win long-sought banner #17 and maybe more.
6) Back To The Future:
"The Celtics Traded Away Their Future." You've heard that statement. It came from the same people who repeatedly said the Celtics youth was overrated, not worth anything, and that the team HAD no future. ...Until they were traded; then suddenly the same players somehow become indispensible.
These gloomy analysts were wrong then and they're wrong now. As it turned out the Celtics young guys were worth a lot, and the future is yet to be written. Over time great teams make their own destiny.
7) Look West:
What are the championship prospects of the Dallas Mavericks and of the Phoenix Suns? (Does it even matter?) Those teams have won as many titles as the Celtics in the last two decades: zero. They're touted as great and successful franchises. Everyone said they had huge windows. Well, maybe they'll win something yet...
The reality of their situation is this: To this point their perceived windows have amounted to nothing.
The only thing that matters is actually winning, and this Celtics team has a chance to do just that right now, this very season. They have the every bit the same chance as the Suns or Mavs.
8) In closing the discussion I have one last thought that sums everything up: *It's not the size of your window. It's how you use it.*
--Final notes--
9) Tommy Heinsohn is loved. He's slowing down a little bit physically, and reports have implied that he's been dealing with medical problems within his family. While respecting his privacy, I want to wish Tommy and those close to him all the best through whatever it is that's going on. Tommy Heinsohn has meant so much to so many for so long. He's the one man who deserves to be in all three branches of the hall of fame as a player, a coach, AND a broadcaster. Best wishes Tommy, to you and to yours.
10) Swagger Update (realgmers- sorry for the repost):
A few weeks back I wrote an article about swagger. Mike Gorman brought up the same subject again a few days ago. Here he is quoted in Mike Fine's article in the Patriot Ledger on September 22nd:
‘‘It’s much easier to broadcast a good team than a bad team,’’ Gorman said. ‘‘I’m to the point of my career now where I’m not an objective journalist. I’m the Celtics play-by-play guy. Now to be able to walk into a building and inwardly having a little bit of a swagger, and to go on the air with a little bit of a swagger - I can’t wait.’’
...That goes for all of us.
"The Celtics traded away their future."
"The Celtics will be right back where they were in a few years."
"They threw away everything for stars on the downside."
Mmmm. Questionable words, don't you think?
Last week's article was partly about a door; this week's is mostly about windows. I'm here to talk about the ghosts of championship windows past, present and future:
2) The Ghost Of Windows Past:
What we are about to witness is the 4th window of potential Celtic championships.
Window #3 was the Bird era. Perceived window (the number of seasons people thought the Celtics could contend for the title): around 8 years. Actual window (the time between their first and last titles): 1981 through 1986; 6 years.
Window #2 was the Havlicek/Cowens era. Perceived window: around 5 years. Actual window: 1974 through 1976; 3 years.
Window #1— the Crystal Cathedral of NBA championship windows: 13 years. Actual window: 1957 through 1969; also 13. Russell and company won coming in and won going out; none of this "waiting to gel" stuff, and no long painful decline on the back end. Just wall to wall winning. Amazing.
Listen... angels are singing. Can you hear them?
3) The Ghost of Windows Future:
What am I the danged Oracle of freakin' Delphi? How should I know what will happen next? It doesn't matter right now. Que double-sera.
There's a lot more to say on that subject but for the moment let's concentrate on...
4) The Ghost of Windows Present:
The actual window of the first three green empires was 13, 3, and 6 years respectively. I'm talking about real championships with those numbers, not maybe-could've championships. So here we are after being locked in a dark dungeon for two decades with no windows and a busted door. Suddenly we're looking at a team with a chance to win everything again.
5) How Long Will This 4th Window Last?:
No one knows its duration. When this window closes it might turn out to be surprisingly big or might not ever have been there at all, just an illusion of that deranged prisoner in the dungeon. Right now though it looks very real and very wonderful.
To guess its extent let's realize that the 4th window is not being opened by a rookie like Russell's and Bird's were. Instead look at what Bill Walton calls "The MIddle Dynasty," the Tommy Heinsohn coached blazingly-fast champions of the 1970's. They did have great young players but John Havlicek -the cornerstone of that team's success- was of similar vintage to the current Big Three. The 70s team won two titles in three years. Only a Havlicek shoulder injury in the playoffs kept them from hanging a third banner. As windows go it was fairly short.
But TWO titles... What would TWO titles make you feel like right now?
It's very possible the 4th window could become comparable to the 2nd— easily enough time to win long-sought banner #17 and maybe more.
6) Back To The Future:
"The Celtics Traded Away Their Future." You've heard that statement. It came from the same people who repeatedly said the Celtics youth was overrated, not worth anything, and that the team HAD no future. ...Until they were traded; then suddenly the same players somehow become indispensible.
These gloomy analysts were wrong then and they're wrong now. As it turned out the Celtics young guys were worth a lot, and the future is yet to be written. Over time great teams make their own destiny.
7) Look West:
What are the championship prospects of the Dallas Mavericks and of the Phoenix Suns? (Does it even matter?) Those teams have won as many titles as the Celtics in the last two decades: zero. They're touted as great and successful franchises. Everyone said they had huge windows. Well, maybe they'll win something yet...
The reality of their situation is this: To this point their perceived windows have amounted to nothing.
The only thing that matters is actually winning, and this Celtics team has a chance to do just that right now, this very season. They have the every bit the same chance as the Suns or Mavs.
8) In closing the discussion I have one last thought that sums everything up: *It's not the size of your window. It's how you use it.*
--Final notes--
9) Tommy Heinsohn is loved. He's slowing down a little bit physically, and reports have implied that he's been dealing with medical problems within his family. While respecting his privacy, I want to wish Tommy and those close to him all the best through whatever it is that's going on. Tommy Heinsohn has meant so much to so many for so long. He's the one man who deserves to be in all three branches of the hall of fame as a player, a coach, AND a broadcaster. Best wishes Tommy, to you and to yours.
10) Swagger Update (realgmers- sorry for the repost):
A few weeks back I wrote an article about swagger. Mike Gorman brought up the same subject again a few days ago. Here he is quoted in Mike Fine's article in the Patriot Ledger on September 22nd:
‘‘It’s much easier to broadcast a good team than a bad team,’’ Gorman said. ‘‘I’m to the point of my career now where I’m not an objective journalist. I’m the Celtics play-by-play guy. Now to be able to walk into a building and inwardly having a little bit of a swagger, and to go on the air with a little bit of a swagger - I can’t wait.’’
...That goes for all of us.
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