10 things that lead to a conclusion about pick 5

1) Here are the players the Boston Celtics are probably looking at in the upcoming draft:

Corey Brewer
Mike Conley, Jr.
Jeff Green
Spencer Hawes
Al Horford
Yi Jianlian
Joakim Noah
Al Thornton
Brandan Wright
Julian Wright

2) Right away I want to eliminate these guys from consideration no matter where the Celtics choose: Hawes, Conley, and Julian Wright.

3) If the Celtics trade down they could choose either Thornton or Noah. But at 5, you can eliminate those two as well.

4) If the Celtics keep the 5th pick there are four real possiblities, maybe five. Three bigs, and I guess two wings:

Brandan Wright
Horford
Yi
Green
and possibly Brewer

5) Having said that, I don't really see Brewer (especially after measurements) as so outstanding that he can overcome the team's whopping positional needs. You go with best player available, but if it's really close, position is the determining factor. Plus if you draft Brewer aren't you saying slamming the door on Gerald Green? (I'm not ready to do that and I don't think the Celtics are either.)

6) So let's eliminate Brewer. Here's who's left:

Brandan Wright
Horford
Yi
Green

7) By the time the 5th pick comes around, one or two of those guys will be gone; and two or three of those guys will still be on the board. Jeff Green will almost surely be available. (Barring trades, Green will definitely be there for Boston if they want him. He duplicates half the players on Atlanta's roster and he duplicates Gay in Memphis.)

Here's some factors to consider:

--Conley. Atlanta needs a point. Memphis needs a point. Portland or someone else might want Conley enough to trade above Milwaukee for him. (Though trading that high will be tough.)
If Conley is taken at 3 or 4, the Celtics are helped.

--Horford. Realistically, he's the least likely guy to be available at 5. He's strong; his measurements eliminated size doubts; he's skilled. He's probably not great but he's surely good, and he fills Memphis' other need aside from point. in other words there's a high probability he'll be gone before 5.

8) That leaves three players: Brandan Wright, Yi, or Green.

Every draftee gets heavily scrutinized and gets a buzz going, negative or positive before the draft. Wright's negative buzz has come pretty early so he has plenty of time to turn that around. Workouts will be key for him.


9) Unless Green just ABSOLUTELY makes the Celtics picture themselves on a boat on a river, with tangerine trees and marmalade skies- THAT LEAVES YI. For some time I have thought Yi is being targeted by Boston. There have been many bits of information saying the Celtics have a huge interest in this guy. There is little reason to doubt that it's all true.

Then came the surprising news that Yi skipped not only the physical workouts, but the measurements too! That means Yi will refuse to work out for teams he doesn't want to go to, and you can safely bet Atlanta and Memphis are among them.

I doubt he will avoid Boston. (Remember Yi's close personal encounter with Celtic's Esquire, and his positive words about the our beloved franchise?) Boston is a big market team where (if Yi's a player) he could easily step right in as the Celtics have an enormous need for a long agile guy.

Why else skip measurements?: BECAUSE his measurements are off the charts! Why else hide them? He's not short and slow!!

Yi does not want a team like Atlanta to have those statistics in front of them and choose him ANYWAY. (Reports are he's incredibly long and very nifty for a big man.) So he avoided giving ANY reason he could for what he considers undesirable franchises to choose him.


10) This leads to trade scenarios: (We have renentered the Dirk Zone.) No one is complaining about landing Pierce with the 10th pick way back when, but Nowitzki turned out even better. Nelson traded to get him (giving up a shot at Tractor Traylor! How could he?).

Here it is years later and behold, Yi's name has been linked to Nelson's Warriors plus the Chicago Bulls.

Why I don't think either will be able to trade ahead of Boston: This is not exactly the same situation as 1998 where all you had to do was move up to the 9th position. Moving up to the 3rd or 4th spot is much more difficult. Chicago will try, but they won't mess with their core and without doing so, it won't be enough. I don't see Golden State tempting either Memphis or Atlanta with spare parts either.


So once again I see it going something like this:

Atlanta: Wright or Conley or Horford (in that order)
Memphis: Horford or Conley
Boston: Yi