10 things leading up to Tuesday night

(originally posted on realgm)

Breathe in, breathe out. Breathe in, breathe out.

1) Duncan and San Antonio are right there again. For the purposes of the following point, Horry's hip check and the resulting suspensions are irrelevant. That point is: When you have the best big man in the game, you're a threat for a title every year.

That's why you draft Oden with the first pick. Durant's so good, you consider him, but when late June rolls by, you go with the big guy.


2) As mentioned in a recent post, it's down to four guys for the Celtics. A fifth won't even come into play. It's Oden at 1, Durant at 2, Yi or B. Wright at 3 or 4; and if it comes down to 5 someone else will very likely leave Yi or B on the table.

That's all the names you need to consider.


3) There's lots of ping pong articles today. Heres' a quote from David Stern via the Shira Springer column in the Globe:

"There have been some suggestions that we've weighted it too much to the teams with the worst records," said Stern. "I scratch my head and say, 'I thought that was the purpose of the draft.'
We're going to have an interesting series of internal meetings this summer about the lottery to see if it's as good as it should be. We're open to any improvements that would seem to make sense, but we think we're pretty close to what is the best system under the circumstances, if not the best."

http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/celtics/articles/2007/05/20/another_journey_to_the_land_of_odds?mode=PF


4) Stern is right. Every other system has already been tried, and they're all worse (MUCH worse). If it wasn't for the weighted lottery, this winter would have been unwatchable. With it, the season was actually entertaining. So the Celtics played Leon Powe in the 4th quarter and Milwaukee's best guy was 4 and a half feet tall. So what? It created a second point of drama in the standings.

It was good wholesome fun.


5) Cleveland's the fourth best team in the East. After changing the seeding sytem, circumstances still led to the three best teams (Detroit, Chicago, Miami) on the same side of the bracket. The Cavs played a decimated Washington team and an over the hill Jersey bunch relying on Mikki Moore in the frontcourt. This is a fool's gold run for them, not completely unlike the Celtics' East finals feint a few years back. (Although with LeBron, the Cavs can still grow from here.)

Cleveland's luck has run out for now though. They are no match for the Pistons.


6) There's another thread on this but... The Yi buzz seems to be growing. Chad Ford just wrote a boffo review of Yi. Ainge has been reportedly high on him for some time. You see, if the Celtics drop to 3, I think it will be Yi (not B.).

Ford on Yi, well worth reading:
http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=sports&id=5317418


7) Back to harsh reality: It's misery if the Celtics end up at 3... and the misery deepens if the pick is number 4 or 5. Durant and Oden are just that spectacular. Everyone knows it, and there's no avoiding it. Maybe someone like Yi will turn out to be so good that things will end up ok. But If the Celtics end up lower than spot 2 Tuesday night, an army of trauma counselors will be needed.

Unfortunately as we know, that is more likely to happen than not.

If it's 3 or below, by draft day we'll have adjusted our brains and built up whoever the choice is into someone acceptable. In other words, we'll live. BUT TUESDAY NIGHT IS IT!


8) As has been repeated, last year everyone would be thrilled to get Yi or Wright or Brewer. Noah would have been #1 last year. But this is not crappy old last year. This is THIS year— this is likely AN ALL-TIME GREAT DRAFT. I doubt Brandon Roy or Paul Millsap or Andrea Bargnani would even make all-rookie first team among this group.

Deep as this class may be, the 3, 4 and 5 guys won't put a lampshade on your head Tuesday evening. That type of fashionable celebratory headwear is reserved only for Oden and Durant.


9) Here's another quote from the Shira article:

"Rarely does the worst team get the first pick," said Orlando senior vice president Pat Williams, a four-time lottery winner. "I've sat up at that table many, many years. The emotion in there is indescribable. When you think that your future employment hinges on some Ping-Pong balls rattling around in a machine, oh, what an insane way to make a living."

What an insane thing to depend on as a fan too.


10) THIS IS IT. This could be the turnaround. ONE MOMENT late Tuesday could just about assure a dozen years or more of championship contention, of weekly nationally televised games, of the return to preeminence of the greatest franchise in the history of sports.

That's all there is to say. Destiny is out of our hands.


Breathe in, breathe out. Breathe in, breathe out.